Overview
Trump welcomes Mohammed Bin Salman to Washington — and while it might sound like a standard diplomatic visit, beneath the surface lies a potential game-changer: the possible sale of F-35 stealth jets to Saudi Arabia. With the right agreements in place, this deal could reshape Middle East power, redraw alliances, and redefine U.S.–Saudi relations. Most people don’t realize just how far-reaching the impact could be.
Something Bigger Than a Diplomatic Photo-Op
Picture this — you walk into what feels like an ordinary meeting, only to realize you’re stepping into a geopolitical chess match where every move has consequences. That’s the energy surrounding Trump’s decision to welcome Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) right now.
On the surface, it’s a warm diplomatic gesture. But beneath the headlines is a far more consequential conversation: the possible transfer of F-35 fifth-generation fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, along with talks about security guarantees, economic cooperation, and long-term power shifts across the Middle East.
If you’re wondering why this matters, you’re not alone — because this isn’t simply about selling aircraft. It’s about leverage, influence, and the future balance of power across one of the world’s most strategically sensitive regions.
Here’s what you’ll discover in this article:
- Why Trump chose this moment to host MBS
- What the potential F-35 deal includes
- How this reshapes Middle East military power and alliances
- What Israel, Iran, Congress, and global powers are worried about
- The risks, the opportunities, and what happens next
Why Trump Welcomes MBS Now: Timing Is Everything
A Diplomatic Reset With Strategic Intent
Trump’s meeting with MBS aligns with a broader U.S. strategy to rebuild a tight partnership with Saudi Arabia — not just around energy and investment, but defense, technology, and long-term regional stability.
Saudi Arabia has been modernizing its military capabilities for years as part of its long-term national transformation program. Access to the U.S.-made F-35 fighter — one of the world’s most advanced aircraft — would mark a historic upgrade in its capabilities.
The visit signals:
- A renewed U.S.–Saudi defense alignment
- Deepened cooperation on counterterrorism
- Potential economic and technology partnerships
- Shared goals regarding regional security and Iran
What’s Actually on the Table
Trump has publicly stated willingness to authorize sales of F-35 jets to Saudi Arabia — a move previous administrations hesitated to approve.
Saudi Arabia is believed to be seeking:
- Up to 48 F-35A jets
- A large integrated support package (training, maintenance, simulators)
- Additional defensive systems to modernize its broader military infrastructure
The request has already cleared a key internal Pentagon review, signaling that the U.S. defense establishment views the proposal as viable — if political conditions fall into place.
How the F-35 Could Reshape Middle East Power
Why the F-35 Isn’t Just “Another Jet”
The F-35 provides capabilities no existing Saudi aircraft can match:
- Stealth technology
- Advanced radar and sensor fusion
- Deep-strike capabilities
- High survivability in contested airspace
In the Middle East, where air dominance is often a deciding factor in power projection, these jets could fundamentally change Saudi Arabia’s strategic reach — particularly in relation to Iran.
A Regional Chain Reaction
If Saudi Arabia obtains F-35s:
- Iran may face a dramatically stronger adversary
- Other Gulf states could demand similar systems, accelerating an arms race
- Israel’s current military dominance could feel challenged
- The U.S. would deepen interoperability with Saudi forces
- Russia and China could lose influence in the region
This arms sale is not merely transactional — it is structurally transformative.
The Israel Factor: A Delicate Balancing Act
Israel maintains what is known as the Qualitative Military Edge (QME) — America’s long-standing policy to ensure Israel has the upper hand against any regional adversary.
Selling F-35s to Saudi Arabia complicates that commitment.
Israel’s Concerns Include:
- F-35s operating near Israeli borders
- Reduced strategic superiority
- Potential shifts in air dominance
- The political symbolism of selling equal-level jets to Arab rivals
Some Israeli officials reportedly want any deal tied to further normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia — including deeper diplomatic ties and expanded security cooperation.
Saudi Arabia, however, has historically been cautious about linking its defense procurement with political concessions involving Israel
Congressional Hurdles: Why This Deal Is Far From Guaranteed
Even with Trump’s approval, U.S. law requires the executive branch to formally notify Congress of major arms sales. Lawmakers then have the power to:
- Block the sale
- Delay approval
- Add restrictions
- Demand additional safeguards
Reasons Congress May Push Back:
- Human rights concerns surrounding Saudi Arabia
- Fears of technology leakage, especially given Saudi ties with China
- Concerns about destabilizing Israel’s QME
- General political skepticism of large arms deals
Some members of Congress have historically been outspoken critics of giving highly advanced weaponry to Middle Eastern governments without strict oversight.
Technology Risks: The F-35’s Most Sensitive Secrets
The F-35 is not just a fighter jet — it’s a flying data ecosystem filled with proprietary U.S. technology.
American officials worry about:
- Chinese defense companies gaining access through Saudi partnerships
- Maintenance data or systems being monitored by foreign intel
- Supply chain vulnerabilities in the Gulf
- Reverse-engineering risks
Because of these concerns, the U.S. may insist on:
- Strict end-use monitoring
- Controlled maintenance programs
- Restricted deployment zones
- A “modified export version” with sensitive components removed
Protecting the aircraft’s technology is one of the biggest hurdles for the deal.
What Saudi Arabia Stands to Gain
1. Unmatched Air Superiority
The F-35 would instantly place Saudi Arabia among the world’s most capable air forces.
2. Regional Deterrence Against Iran
The jets could give Riyadh a significant edge in both defense and offensive deterrence, especially amid rising regional tensions.
3. Deepened Alliance With the U.S.
Defense cooperation often serves as the backbone of long-term strategic partnerships.
The more integrated Saudi Arabia becomes in U.S. defense systems, the more aligned their security interests become.
4. Stronger Negotiating Leverage
Whether dealing with Iran, regional rivals, or even global powers, F-35 ownership would elevate Saudi Arabia’s geopolitical standing.
What the U.S. Gains: More Than Just a Weapons Sale
1. Increased Influence in the Gulf
At a time when China and Russia are expanding their influence, a landmark arms deal keeps Saudi Arabia firmly aligned with Washington.
2. A Boost for the U.S. Defense Industry
The F-35 program is a major economic engine. A 48-jet sale would inject billions into American manufacturing and sustain thousands of jobs.
3. Strategic Leverage Over Iran
A stronger Saudi military aligns with U.S. goals to counter Iran’s regional activities.
4. Diplomatic Leverage for Middle East Agreements
This deal could become a bargaining chip to:
- Support new peace initiatives
- Encourage Saudi-Israel cooperation
- Push for wider regional stabilization
What Could Go Wrong — The High-Risk Scenarios
Even with strong strategic logic, several things could derail this deal:
1. Congressional Veto or Delay
Congress may refuse to approve or impose severe conditions.
2. Israeli Opposition
If Israel feels the deal jeopardizes its security, leaders there may lobby against it.
3. Technology Compromise
Any risk to F-35 intelligence systems is a non-starter for U.S. defense officials.
4. Diplomatic Blowback
Human rights groups, foreign policy analysts, and global NGOs may oppose the sale.
5. Regional Escalation
Iran or other regional actors could react aggressively if the sale goes through.
FAQs
1. Why is Trump meeting MBS right now?
Trump’s meeting with Mohammed Bin Salman focuses on strengthening U.S.–Saudi relations, with defense and economic cooperation as major components.
2. How many F-35 jets is Saudi Arabia trying to buy?
Saudi Arabia is believed to have requested up to 48 F-35A jets, a significant fleet size.
3. Could this deal destabilize the Middle East?
Yes, depending on conditions. It could trigger an arms race, complicate Israel’s security environment, or heighten Iran–Saudi tensions.
4. Why is Israel concerned?
Israel worries the sale could weaken its guaranteed military edge and place advanced aircraft close to its borders.
5. Can Congress block the deal?
Absolutely. Congress holds significant authority to prevent, delay, or limit major arms sales.
6. What’s the biggest obstacle?
Technology security — the U.S. must ensure F-35 systems stay protected from foreign access or espionage.
Conclusion: A Deal That Could Reshape the Future
Trump’s decision to welcome MBS isn’t just diplomacy — it’s a move that could alter the strategic landscape of the Middle East for decades.
The potential F-35 sale offers enormous opportunities for both nations, but also carries equally enormous risks. Balancing power, protecting technology, reassuring allies, and navigating political hurdles will determine whether this deal becomes a milestone — or a missed moment.
Now that you know the stakes, keep watching the story unfold — because the next steps will reveal whether this geopolitical gamble pays off.